JTAER, Vol. 19, Pages 135-151: It’s Not Always about Wide and Deep Models: Click-Through Rate Prediction with a Customer Behavior-Embedding Representation

Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research doi: 10.3390/jtaer19010008

Authors: Miguel Alves Gomes Richard Meyes Philipp Meisen Tobias Meisen

Alongside natural language processing and computer vision, large learning models have found their way into e-commerce. Especially, for recommender systems and click-through rate prediction, these models have shown great predictive power. In this work, we aim to predict the probability that a customer will click on a given recommendation, given only its current session. Therefore, we propose a two-stage approach consisting of a customer behavior-embedding representation and a recurrent neural network. In the first stage, we train a self-supervised skip-gram embedding on customer activity data. The resulting embedding representation is used in the second stage to encode the customer sequences which are then used as input to the learning model. Our proposed approach diverges from the prevailing trend of utilizing extensive end-to-end models for click-through rate prediction. The experiments, which incorporate a real-world industrial use case and a widely used as well as openly available benchmark dataset, demonstrate that our approach outperforms the current state-of-the-art models. Our approach predicts customers’ click intention with an average F1 accuracy of 94% for the industrial use case which is one percentage point higher than the state-of-the-art baseline and an average F1 accuracy of 79% for the benchmark dataset, which outperforms the best tested state-of-the-art baseline by more than seven percentage points. The results show that, contrary to current trends in that field, large end-to-end models are not always needed. The analysis of our experiments suggests that the reason for the performance of our approach is the self-supervised pre-trained embedding of customer behavior that we use as the customer representation.

JTAER, Vol. 18, Pages 1404-1418: TEE: Real-Time Purchase Prediction Using Time Extended Embeddings for Representing Customer Behavior

Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research doi: 10.3390/jtaer18030070

Authors: Miguel Alves Gomes Mark Wönkhaus Philipp Meisen Tobias Meisen

Real-time customer purchase prediction tries to predict which products a customer will buy next. Depending on the approach used, this involves using data such as the customer’s past purchases, his or her search queries, the time spent on a product page, the customer’s age and gender, and other demographic information. These predictions are then used to generate personalized recommendations and offers for the customer. A variety of approaches already exist for real-time customer purchase prediction. However, these typically require expertise to create customer representations. Recently, embedding-based approaches have shown that customer representations can be effectively learned. In this regard, however, the current state-of-the-art does not consider activity time. In this work, we propose an extended embedding approach to represent the customer behavior of a session for both known and unknown customers by including the activity time. We train a long short-term memory with our representation. We show with empirical experiments on three different real-world datasets that encoding activity time into the embedding increases the performance of the prediction and outperforms the current approaches used.