Category Archives: ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Does it matter how we ship the good apples out? On specific tariffs, transport modes, and agricultural export prices

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Abstract

Free-on-board (FOB) export prices for identical products from the same origin often differ across destinations, even when accounting for the trade costs and attributes of the destination country. One explanation for this observed price difference is per-unit trade costs, and the ability of exporters to vary their markups and/or product quality. Using a novel dataset that details trade flows between countries by mode of transport, we estimate the transport mode-specific effect of a per-unit trade cost, specifically specific tariffs, on the FOB export prices of agricultural products. We find an elasticity of specific tariffs to export prices of 1.8%. However, the estimates are heterogeneous across modes of transport. The elasticity of specific tariffs to export prices is 2% for air transport, 5% for road transport, and  .3% for sea cargo. Since the observed positive export price effect can reflect product quality differences or markups, we account for the quality element and find that for a given product quality, markups increase with increasing specific tariffs. This form of price discrimination is less pronounced for higher-quality products that are predominantly shipped by air.

The direct and indirect effects of cash transfer program on the consumption of nutrients: Evidence from Kenya

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Abstract

How does the receipt of a cash transfer impact consumption of nutrients, vitamins, and minerals in households? To answer this question, we use a randomized controlled trial dataset from Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP) with 9,246 households spread across the four districts (Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, and Mandera) of Kenya. In the experiment, HSNP treated households received a bi-monthly cash transfer of about United States of America Dollar (USD) 20 relative to households in control sub-locations. Using difference in-difference specification, we find that HSNP poor beneficiary households in treated households increased (by approximately 96%, 50%, and 61%) the consumption of vitamins A, C, and beta carotene, respectively compared to those in control sub-locations. Moreover, HSNP non-poor, non-beneficiary households residing in treated sub-locations increased (by about 70% and 46%) the consumption of vitamin A and Beta carotene, respectively compared to those in control sub-locations. In addition, HSNP-poor beneficiary households in treated sub-locations sourced most of their nutrients, vitamins, and minerals from the market. We rule out alternative pathways that could potentially increase consumption and conclude that a rise in consumption amongst HSNP non-poor, non-beneficiary households is due to sharing of HSNP transfer amongst social network members.

Investigating the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Iran: Spatial spillovers matter

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Abstract

In this study, we enhance our understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Iran to provide further information for moving Iran's climate policy forward by linking farmland net revenue to novel climatic and non-climatic variables. We take advantage of spatial panel econometrics to better circumvent omitted factors extraneous to the agricultural sector and to develop a more reliable and consistent model when data are inherently spatial. In contrast to conventional panel studies which relied on year-to-year weather observations, we exploit a hybrid approach to compromise between the disadvantages and advantages of longer-term cross-sectional analysis and shorter-term panel models. We estimate the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture under several global warming scenarios based on the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We find that (I) farmlands’ net revenues are projected to decline by 8%–19% and 14%–51% by 2050 and 2080; (II) the distributional impacts of climate change would highly depend on climate zones and geographical locations; (III) a few counties might benefit from climate changes; (IV) finally, failing to account for spatial spillovers when they are present leads to a misspecified model.

National and subnational regulation of farm practices for consumer products sold within a jurisdiction: California’s Proposition 12

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Abstract

This article studies the economic effects of regulations that restrict farm practices used to produce products sold within a regulating jurisdiction, regardless of where the product was produced. We apply this analysis to the impact of California's law on sow housing and the North American hog/pork supply chain. California's Proposition 12 requires that specified pork products sold in California come from hogs whose mothers were housed according to California requirements. Such regulations, whether imposed by national or subnational authorities, have unique impacts on production, demand, prices, and economic welfare both within and outside the regulating jurisdiction. Our model identifies these effects and quantifies their impacts within a calibrated equilibrium framework. Results show that California consumers will buy less pork under Proposition 12 because retail prices of regulated cuts of pork will rise by about 7%. Compliant hog producers will, on average, earn greater profits, while impacts on prices and quantities of products sold outside of California are minimal. Regulations like Proposition 12 are especially costly ways to affect farm animal treatment because they impose costs throughout the supply chain. We consider a simple alternative policy that would achieve far more change in animal housing at lower cost.

Is dirt cheap? The economic costs of failing to meet soil health requirements on smallholder farms

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Abstract

Agricultural productivity is hindered in smallholder farming systems due to several factors, including farmers’ inability to meet crop-specific soil requirements. This article focuses on soil suitability for maize production and creates multidimensional soil suitability profiles of smallholder maize plots in Uganda while quantifying forgone production due to cultivation on less-than-suitable land and identifying groups of farmers that are disproportionately impacted. The analysis leverages the unique socioeconomic data from a subnational survey conducted in Eastern Uganda, inclusive of plot-level, objective measures of maize yields and soil attributes. Stochastic frontier models of maize yields are estimated within each soil suitability class to understand differences in returns to inputs, technical efficiency, and potential yield. Farmers cultivating highly suitable soil have the potential to increase their observed yields by as much as 86%, while those at the opposite end of the suitability distribution (i.e., with marginally suitable land) operate closer to the production frontier and can only increase yields by up to 59%, given the current technology set. There is heterogeneity in potential gains across the wealth distribution, with poorer households facing more heavily constrained potential.

Effect of sovereign wealth funds in commodity‐exporting economies when commodity prices affect interest spreads

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Abstract

We reconsider the role of a sovereign wealth fund in commodity-exporting economies facing recent volatile fluctuations of commodity prices due to the COVID-19 shock. We examine the welfare-improving effect of a sovereign wealth fund from the new perspective of the link between commodity prices and interest rate spreads, which is unique to emerging economies. We show that a sovereign wealth fund becomes more effective in improving welfare for commodity-exporting economies with a stronger link between their commodity prices and interest rate spreads.

Rural digital infrastructure and labor market: Evidence from universal telecommunication service

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Abstract

This study estimates the effects of the rapid expansion of digital infrastructure on rural employment and income. We use a triple-difference framework and exploit the geographic variation of the recent universal telecommunication service in China. Empirical results reveal increased broadband adoption after the implementation of the program with governmental subsidy. The universal telecommunication service led to an increase in rural residents’ income and their employment in the non-agricultural sector, especially salaried work. The findings suggest that digital infrastructure promotes the transformation of the rural economy in emerging markets.

Labor elasticities, market failures, and misallocation: Evidence from Indian agriculture

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Abstract

This article presents evidence of misallocation across households in rural Indian agriculture. I show that household demographics predict own farm labor demand for smallholder farmers but not non-smallholder farmers. A simple model of labor allocation predicts a clear consequence of this duality: smallholder farmers will reallocate labor across plots less in response to price changes than non-smallholders. Detailed household panel data confirms this theoretical prediction. Three additional facts suggest that a lack of off-farm labor opportunities may be partly responsible for the behavior of smallholders, leading smallholders to over allocate labor to agricultural production. First, smallholders report fewer hours of involuntary unemployment when their own crop prices increase. Second, yield is substantially higher for smallholders on plots of the same size. Finally, estimated marginal revenue products of labor are consistently lower for smallholders.

The poor do not pay more: Evidence from Tanzanian consumer food expenditures controlling for the food environment

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Abstract

We revisit the question of whether the poor pay more for food using household food expenditure data from Tanzania. We control for spatial factors that could affect food prices, namely, whether a rural household is in a peri-urban, intermediate, or hinterland rural zone (distinguished by distance to urban areas) and whether an urban household is in a primary city, secondary city, or a town. Our results differ from conventional wisdom. First, we find that the rich and the poor pay about the same price per kilogram on average for certain key Tanzanian food products like rice, maize flour, and cooking oil. Second, we find that poor households do not buy meaningfully smaller quantities per transaction than do richer households. Third, the rich and the poor also make roughly the same number of purchases per month for most food products studied. Lastly, we find that bulk discounts (a decrease in price per kilogram with an increase in quantity purchased) do exist, but only up to a certain quantity (with exceptions in some animal proteins), below which few households purchase. Hence, our evidence suggests that poorer Tanzanian households do not pay significantly more for key food products.

Increasing the adoption of conservation agriculture: A framed field experiment in Northern Ghana

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Abstract

Conservation agriculture techniques have the potential to increase agricultural production while decreasing CO2 emissions, yet adoption in the developing world remains low—in part because many years of continuous adoption may be required to realize gains in production. We conduct a framed field experiment in northern Ghana to study how incentives and peer information may affect adoption. Incentives increase adoption, both while they are available and after withdrawal. There is no overall effect of peer information, but we do find evidence that information about long-term adoption increased adoption, particularly when that information shows that yield gains have been achieved.