Category Archives: RESEARCH ARTICLE

Do ties still bind? Analyst behaviour after financial restatements

Posted on by

Abstract

We find that, compared to non-connected analysts, analysts with professional connections to a coverage firm (i.e., connected analysts) are more likely to continue covering the firm after it issues a restatement. Furthermore, connected analysts are more likely to issue pessimistic earnings forecasts and to downgrade stock recommendations for the firm after its financial restatement. Our results also reveal the costs and benefits associated with connected analysts' pessimism – a reduced market reaction to the analysts' pessimistic research on the restating firm, and a positive effect on the market's perception of the quality of the analysts' research on non-restating firms.

Can work integrated learning deliver employability? International post‐graduate accounting students

Posted on by

Abstract

International students studying a Master of Professional Accountancy (MPA), or equivalent postgraduate degree in accounting, in Australia were designed to fill the skills shortage gap for accountants, but employability rates appear low at 25% compared to 75% for domestic graduates. University work integrated learning (WIL) programs have been implemented to provide opportunities to increase employability, yet participation rates for international students appear low. This study uses an exploratory, qualitative approach, with semi-structured interviews of industry and students, to explore the participation rates, experiences and expectations of stakeholders in relation to WIL. Implications of the findings for stakeholders include preparation programs and simulated WIL opportunities.

Do rights matter? An intraday analysis of rights issues in Australia

Posted on by

Abstract

We examine intraday abnormal returns associated with rights issue announcements in the Australian equity market over the period January 2000 to December 2022. Consistent with prior studies, we find significant abnormal returns ranging from −2.9% to −2.7% on the event day. We provide the first evidence on intraday price reactions pertaining to rights issues in Australia. Within 15 min of an announcement, we find significant abnormal trade returns of −1.2%. However, market participants are unable to profit by trading on these announcements due to transaction costs. Our results imply that the information content is fully impounded within 90 min.

Compensating balance and loan bargaining power in China

Posted on by

Abstract

Chinese firms simultaneously have high levels of loans and cash holdings. Through listed firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, we establish a negative link between cash holdings and a firm's loan bargaining power, especially in regions with less bank competition, through a firm's passive response to bank requests rather than its voluntary excess cash reserves. Furthermore, state ownership, collateral, economic contribution, and reduced information asymmetry may effectively strengthen firm bargaining power and moderate the link. However, better marketisation strengthens the link. The banking sector may need to improve its efficiency through better credit rationing in future reforms.

Why does operating profitability predict returns? New evidence on risk versus mispricing explanations

Posted on by

Abstract

This study develops new evidence on risk versus mispricing explanations of the well-known profitability premium. First, we examine whether exposure to expected downside risk is a plausible explanation. We find that high profitability is associated with both lower ex ante and ex post probabilities of future price crashes. Thus, less profitable firms exhibit greater downside risk than highly profitable firms, making a downside risk explanation implausible. Although this fact is overlooked by the market in general, it is anticipated by options traders; we find that put options of low profitability firms are relatively more expensive. Simultaneously, these firms do not exhibit greater probability of jumps, indicating that volatility(risk)-based explanations for the profitability premium are unlikely to be descriptive. Second, we find that the sticky-expectations model of Bouchaud et al. (2019, The Journal of Finance, 74, 639–674) only partially explains the profitability premium. While on average, analysts' forecast revisions correct in the same direction as recent profitability, the profitability premium still exhibits a strong relationship to the non-sticky component of analysts' forecast revisions. Third, institutional investors trade profitability-based signals but do so with a delay, likely contributing to the premium. Overall, our evidence favours the explanation that the profitability premium is related to investor mispricing of potential downside risk and provides greater clarity on recent findings in the literature.

Predicting accounting fraud using imbalanced ensemble learning classifiers – evidence from China

Posted on by

Abstract

The current research aims to launch effective accounting fraud detection models using imbalanced ensemble learning algorithms for China A-Share listed firms. Based on a sample of 33,544 Chinese firm-year instances from 1998 to 2017, this research respectively established one logistic regression and four ensemble learning classifiers (AdaBoost, XGBoost, CUSBoost, and RUSBoost) by 12 financial ratios and 28 raw financial data. Additionally, we divided the sample into the train and test observations to evaluate the classifiers' out-of-sample performance. In detail, we applied two metrics, namely, Area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve (AUC) and Area under the Precision-Recall curve (AUPR), to evaluate classifiers' discriminability. In the supplement test, this study put forward an algebraic fused model on the basis of the four ensemble learning classifiers and introduced the sliding window technique. The empirical results showed that the ensemble learning classifiers can detect accounting fraud for the imbalanced China A-listed firms far more effectively than the logistic regression model. Moreover, imbalanced ensemble learning classifiers (CUSBoost and RUSBoost) effectively performed better than the common ensemble learning models (AdaBoost and XGBoost) in average. The algebraic fused model in the supplement test also obtained the highest average AUC and AUPR among all the employed algorithms. Our results offer firm support for the potential role of Machine Learning (ML)-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches in reliably predicting accounting fraud with high accuracy. Similarly, for the Chinese settings, our ML-based AI offers utmost advantage in forecasting accounting fraud. Finally, this paper fills the research gap on the applications of imbalanced ensemble learning in accounting fraud detection for Chinese listed firms.

Firm culture and internal control system

Posted on by

Abstract

The corporate culture within firms is a significant concern for regulators, shareholders and other stakeholders. Drawing on a large sample of US firms, we use the political preferences of the top management team (TMT) to proxy for a firm's culture and examine whether it influences the decision to implement an effective internal control system (ICS) and whether the ICS plays a mediating role between the culture created by the TMT and financial reporting quality. We find that a Republican-leaning TMT with a more conservative ideology is associated with a more effective internal control system. In addition, the TMT's political preferences affect financial reporting quality, both directly and indirectly, via the internal control system. A range of robustness tests reinforces our main findings.

Enhancing bank transparency: Financial reporting quality, fraudulent peers and social capital

Posted on by

Abstract

This study examines the role of social norms in financial markets by relating bank transparency to social capital. Using comprehensive data on commercial banks, we provide empirical evidence that high social capital contributes to more transparent financial reporting, thereby enabling more precise risk assessments and promoting financial stability. We find that the effect of social capital is more pronounced when commercial banks are more complex and disclosure incentives of bank managers are strong. Our results suggest that more opaque reporting by peers explains lower transparency but financial misreporting is less contagious when social capital is high. Our study suggests that social capital can effectively improve reporting transparency when other mechanisms are not effective, thus securing financial system stability.

Who pays attention to sustainability reports and why? Evidence from Google search activity

Posted on by

Abstract

We introduce country-level Google search activity as a direct measure of the level of stakeholder attention directed towards sustainability reports. We validate this measure by establishing that search activity for sustainability reports is correlated with temporal patterns in firms' supply of these reports. To frame the economic magnitude of this search behaviour, we then show that the level of attention directed towards sustainability reports is very low compared to the level of attention directed towards financial and accounting information. Next, we examine two related research questions. First, we identify who pays attention to sustainability reports. We find, consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve, that attention towards sustainability reports is strongly associated with economic development. Consistent with findings in prior research that suggest citizens in stakeholder-oriented countries have stronger preferences for firms to act prosocially, we also find that search activity for sustainability reports relative to search activity for financial performance metrics is greater in civil law countries than in common law countries. Finally, we then explore the question of why individuals pay attention to sustainability reports and find evidence that suggests sustainability reports are used for two primary purposes: evaluating the societal impacts of firms' actions; and, firm valuation.

Short selling and the independence of business‐related analysts: Evidence from an emerging market

Posted on by

Abstract

This paper investigates whether short-sale deregulation improves analysts' independence in an emerging market where conventional mechanisms mitigating conflicts of interest are either ineffective or absent. Short selling reduces the effectiveness of analysts' favourable opinions in creating or sustaining overvalued stock prices, thus decreasing the incentives of institutional clients of brokerages to exert pressure on related analysts to initiate coverage and issue biased opinions. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find strong evidence that stocks that are eligible for short sales experience a greater reduction in coverage by related analysts than stocks that are ineligible for short sales. When covered firms become eligible for short sales, the quality of forecasts and recommendations issued by related analysts improves considerably. Further analyses show that shortable firms with a significant reduction in related analysts' coverage are more likely to underperform and to experience stock price crashes in the future. Altogether, our results are consistent with short selling effectively restoring related analysts' independence in emerging markets.