Why Do Analysts use a Zero Forecast for Other Comprehensive Income?

Accounting theory and accounting researchers stress the importance of clean surplus accounting and comprehensive income to corporate valuation. However, casual observation suggests that sell-side equity analysts routinely ignore other comprehensive income (OCI) in their forecasts and instead focus on forecasting earnings (before OCI). Using a sample of analyst reports, I first confirm that analysts normally omit forecasts of OCI or comprehensive income from their reports, consistent with analysts forecasting OCI as zero. I then predict and find that a zero forecast for OCI generally produces lower forecasting errors than alternative time-series models, such as a random walk or AR(1) model, suggesting a rational reason why analysts take this approach. Finally, I predict and find that although analysts’ point forecasts of future OCI are usually zero, their implied cost of equity estimates are consistent with analysts forecasting a positive variance for OCI.