Category Archives: Article

Corruption Control, Financial Development, and Growth Volatility: Cross‐Country Evidence

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Abstract

We examine the effect of corruption control on the volatility of economic growth using cross-country data that cover 131 economies worldwide for the period 1985–2018. To estimate the growth volatility model, we employ the system generalized method-of-moments estimator for dynamic panel data, which addresses potential endogeneity concerns using internal instruments. Our results show that corruption control significantly reduces growth volatility. This effect is robust to controlling for other measures of institutional quality. Moreover, we find some evidence for an indirect impact of corruption control on growth volatility through its role in reinforcing the volatility-dampening effect of financial development.

Illiquidity, R&D Investment, and Stock Returns

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Abstract

We propose a dynamic model of research and development (R&D) venture, which predicts that the positive relation between the firm's R&D investment and the expected stock returns strengthens with illiquidity. Consistent with the model's prediction, empirical evidence based on cross-sectional regressions and double-sorted portfolios largely suggests a stronger and positive R&D–return relation among illiquid stocks. A further analysis shows that the important role of illiquidity in the R&D–return relation cannot be explained by factors, such as financial constraints, innovation ability, and product market competition. Collectively, our results suggest that stock illiquidity is an independent driver of the R&D premium.

Monetary Policy and Net Exports Externalities in the Small Open Economy

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Abstract

We extend a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with nontradable goods and intermediate inputs. We show that the optimal monetary policy in the small open economy is not necessarily isomorphic to the closed economy due to net exports externalities. The optimal policymaker is willing to take advantage of the externalities and to raise the real value of home production, along with stabilizing composite domestic inflation. Also, we rank alternative monetary policy rules, estimate the optimal monetary policy rule associated with welfare, and show that setting interest rates toward their target levels of composite domestic inflation and net exports is desirable.

Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policymakers at the ECB

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Abstract

A survey on monetary policy communication among former members of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) reveals that enhancing credibility and trust is viewed as the most important objective of communication. Respondents judge communication with financial markets and experts as adequate, but see room for improvement in communicating with the public. The central bank objective is seen as the most important topic. Several respondents perceived the ECB's inflation aim of “below, but close to, 2%” that was in place at the time as ambiguous and in need of clarification. Overall, there is broad consensus on various communication issues.

On the Controversy over the Origins of the Chicago Plan for 100% Reserves: Sorry, Frederick Soddy, it was Knight and (Most Probably) Simons!

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Abstract

The idea of 100% reserve requirements against demand deposits received a renewed impetus in recent years. In 1933, a group of University of Chicago economists, led by Frank Knight and Henry Simons, circulated two memoranda that proposed the scheme in what became known as the Chicago Plan of Banking Reform. That same idea had been proposed in 1926 by Frederick Soddy, a Nobel Laureate in chemistry. Soddy claimed precedence, a claim that caught on. I provide evidence showing that Knight, and probably Simons, conceived the idea of 100% reserves prior to the publication of Soddy's 1926 book.

Competitive Effects of IPOs: Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions

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Abstract

Theory suggests that initial public offerings (IPOs) can adversely impact listed firms, both directly by increasing intraindustry competition, and indirectly by completing related asset market spaces. However, the endogeneity of individual IPO activity hinders testing these channels. This paper examines listing suspensions in China in a panel specification that accounts for macro-economic and financial conditions, isolating the firm-level IPO impact. We identify the competitive impact of listing suspensions through the value share of postponed firms in the IPO queue in their industry, and asset-space competition by firms' historical covariance with a synthetic portfolio of listed firms with the IPO queue industry mix at the time of suspension. Our results support the predicted IPO effects through both channels. We also document heterogeneity in IPO effects. Stronger firms, measured through a variety of proxies, benefit less from the suspension news. These results are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests.

Markups, Tobin’s q, and the Increasing Capital Share

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Abstract

Increasing markups have recently gained prominence as a leading explanation for the increasing share of income going to capital since the 1980s. However, the existing analysis has been limited to the United States, covers only short periods, and generally does not control for potentially important confounders. Constructing data for the share of income going to capital and markups based on Tobin's q over the period 1870–2018 for 21 advanced countries, this research examines the ability of markups to explain the movements of income shares and the tendency for factor shares to converge toward constants in the long run. We find strong support for the markup hypothesis.

Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP

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Abstract

Economic statistics are commonly published without estimates of their uncertainty. We conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment to assess if and how the UK public understands data uncertainty. A control group observes only the point estimate of GDP. Treatment groups are presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understands that GDP numbers are uncertain. Quantitative communications of data uncertainty help align the public's subjective probabilistic expectations of data uncertainty with objective estimates, but do not decrease trust in the statistical office.

Beyond the LTV Ratio: Lending Standards, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Mortgage Default

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Abstract

Booming house prices are historically correlated with loose lending standards. Nonetheless, in Spain the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio failed to capture imbalances during the last housing boom. Using loan-level data from millions of mortgages we show that inflated collateral valuations, used by banks as a mechanism to circumvent regulation, distorted the informative value of LTV, and masked the accumulation of risk. We identify that regulation relying upon a single measure is more prone to suffer from regulatory arbitrage, and that the optimal policy mix varies over the financial cycle. Overall, our study provides useful insights for the implementation of borrower-based measures.

In Search of a Risk‐Free Asset: Search Costs and Sticky Deposit Rates

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Abstract

I examine the role of costly consumer search for the pricing of deposits. Estimates of a model of heterogeneous search cost households reveal a large fraction of high-search-cost depositors composed of elderly and less financially sophisticated households. Those households grant banks significant monopoly power that results in low and asymmetric interest rate pass-through. The predictions of the estimated model are consistent with responses in the Survey of Consumer Finances to questions related to financial sophistication, search for investment return, and deposit allocations across multiple bank accounts. The estimated model also reveals a nonmonotone relationship between bank entry, deposit rates, and consumer surplus.