Party Politics, Volume 29, Issue 5, Page 906-917, September 2023.
While electoral reforms clearly affect how seats are (re)distributed among parties immediately after their adoption, they do not significantly change the (re)distribution of votes among parties. As political knowledge is positively related to turnout, we argue that the effect of majoritarian electoral reforms on the number of parties is contingent upon the turnout in the last election prior to the reform. Specifically, the lower the turnout level in the previous election, the more effective the majoritarian reform will be. However, the psychological effect of proportional reforms relies on the interplay between elites and voters and is highly uncertain. The argument is tested using aggregated data from 43 major electoral reforms worldwide from 1945 to 2020 and individual data from the first election held in New Zealand after the 1993 electoral reform.
Category Archives: Party Politics:
The mediation effect of radical right parties on the nexus between immigration and right-wing terrorism
Party Politics, Volume 29, Issue 5, Page 878-891, September 2023.
How does political representation of radical right parties (RRP) affect the relationship between immigration and right-wing terrorism targeting out-group members? Drawing on right-wing terrorism data of 31 OECD member states between 1970 and 2017, this paper explored the threefold relationship. Causal mediation analysis revealed that while growing immigration increases right-wing terrorism, RRPs have a mediation effect of decreasing attacks. Sensitivity analysis and robustness checks lend support to the findings. The article provides novel implications for the political consequences of RRP success and the effect of political representation on extremist violence.
How does political representation of radical right parties (RRP) affect the relationship between immigration and right-wing terrorism targeting out-group members? Drawing on right-wing terrorism data of 31 OECD member states between 1970 and 2017, this paper explored the threefold relationship. Causal mediation analysis revealed that while growing immigration increases right-wing terrorism, RRPs have a mediation effect of decreasing attacks. Sensitivity analysis and robustness checks lend support to the findings. The article provides novel implications for the political consequences of RRP success and the effect of political representation on extremist violence.
Why the left has more to lose from ideological convergence than the right
Party Politics, Volume 29, Issue 5, Page 803-816, September 2023.
Why are many traditional governing parties of advanced democracies in decline? One explanation relates to public perceptions about mainstream party convergence. Voters think that the centre-left and -right are increasingly similar and this both reduces mainstream partisan loyalties and makes room for more radical challengers. Replicating and extending earlier studies, we provide evidence supporting this view. First, observational analysis of large cross-national surveys shows that people who place major parties closer together ideologically are less likely to be mainstream partisans, even when holding constant their own ideological proximity to their party. Second, a survey experiment in Germany suggests that this relationship is causal: exposure to information about policy convergence makes mainstream partisan attachments weaker. Importantly, we advance previous discussions of the convergence theory by showing that, in both our studies, ideological depolarisation is most detrimental to mainstream centre-left partisan attachments. We suggest that this is due to differing party histories.
Why are many traditional governing parties of advanced democracies in decline? One explanation relates to public perceptions about mainstream party convergence. Voters think that the centre-left and -right are increasingly similar and this both reduces mainstream partisan loyalties and makes room for more radical challengers. Replicating and extending earlier studies, we provide evidence supporting this view. First, observational analysis of large cross-national surveys shows that people who place major parties closer together ideologically are less likely to be mainstream partisans, even when holding constant their own ideological proximity to their party. Second, a survey experiment in Germany suggests that this relationship is causal: exposure to information about policy convergence makes mainstream partisan attachments weaker. Importantly, we advance previous discussions of the convergence theory by showing that, in both our studies, ideological depolarisation is most detrimental to mainstream centre-left partisan attachments. We suggest that this is due to differing party histories.
Intertwined fates? Members switching between niche and mainstream parties
Party Politics, Volume 29, Issue 5, Page 840-852, September 2023.
Little attention has been paid to the process of members leaving parties in order to support other parties. Party developments in the UK in the 2010s provide an opportunity to analyse the determinants of members giving up their current party and joining a rival. We examine this issue using an original panel survey of 2,679 members of the Green Party of England and Wales. Our results show that members who joined the Greens motivated by concern about social justice are more likely to leave and support Labour after Jeremy Corbyn’s election as party leader. Members who joined to protect the environment are less likely to leave. Niche parties can attract members predominantly motivated by issues traditionally represented by a mainstream party but these members are more likely to leave the party again following a position change by the mainstream party.
Little attention has been paid to the process of members leaving parties in order to support other parties. Party developments in the UK in the 2010s provide an opportunity to analyse the determinants of members giving up their current party and joining a rival. We examine this issue using an original panel survey of 2,679 members of the Green Party of England and Wales. Our results show that members who joined the Greens motivated by concern about social justice are more likely to leave and support Labour after Jeremy Corbyn’s election as party leader. Members who joined to protect the environment are less likely to leave. Niche parties can attract members predominantly motivated by issues traditionally represented by a mainstream party but these members are more likely to leave the party again following a position change by the mainstream party.
Between cabinet membership and opposition: Commitment and responsibility of support parties
Party Politics, Volume 29, Issue 5, Page 981-987, September 2023.
Existing research suggests that government participation is crucial for how voters evaluate party performance and how they cast their votes. However, in real life the distinction between government and opposition is not as straight-forward as one would think. Minority governments often enjoy the legislative support of external support parties, which play an ambiguous role in politics: while they are formally part of the opposition, they are simultaneously committed to keeping the government in office and passing its bills. How do voters evaluate parties that support a minority government? Will they respond to different frames about the significance of the commitment that support parties have made to government policy and survival? In a survey experiment, I test whether framing a written agreement as effective will cause voters to attribute more or less responsibility to the support parties and find that they respond to different frames by altering their perceptions of the importance of the agreement, but not their responsibility attribution.
Existing research suggests that government participation is crucial for how voters evaluate party performance and how they cast their votes. However, in real life the distinction between government and opposition is not as straight-forward as one would think. Minority governments often enjoy the legislative support of external support parties, which play an ambiguous role in politics: while they are formally part of the opposition, they are simultaneously committed to keeping the government in office and passing its bills. How do voters evaluate parties that support a minority government? Will they respond to different frames about the significance of the commitment that support parties have made to government policy and survival? In a survey experiment, I test whether framing a written agreement as effective will cause voters to attribute more or less responsibility to the support parties and find that they respond to different frames by altering their perceptions of the importance of the agreement, but not their responsibility attribution.
Mapping ethics self-regulation within political parties: Norms, oversight and enforcement
Party Politics, Volume 29, Issue 5, Page 892-905, September 2023.
This article introduces the new Party Ethics Self-Regulation database, covering 21 indicators on ethics self-regulation organised into three categories (norms, oversight and enforcement) across 200 political parties of 25 countries available in 2020. Internal self-regulatory efforts developed by political parties have been insufficiently addressed in the literature and remain a blind spot in existing databases on political parties. Our analyses indicate that Radical Right Parties have a lower probability of adopting codes of conduct/ethics when compared to any other party family. It also reveals the strongest effect of country-level factors, with party system institutionalization, political corruption or level of democracy shaping the adoption of at least one form of ethics regulation/body. These findings are relevant because they open the debate about the possibility of incrementing ethics self-regulation within political parties through ethics-targeted public funding and raise the need for further research on the effects of such measures on the parties’ ethical climate and public legitimation.
This article introduces the new Party Ethics Self-Regulation database, covering 21 indicators on ethics self-regulation organised into three categories (norms, oversight and enforcement) across 200 political parties of 25 countries available in 2020. Internal self-regulatory efforts developed by political parties have been insufficiently addressed in the literature and remain a blind spot in existing databases on political parties. Our analyses indicate that Radical Right Parties have a lower probability of adopting codes of conduct/ethics when compared to any other party family. It also reveals the strongest effect of country-level factors, with party system institutionalization, political corruption or level of democracy shaping the adoption of at least one form of ethics regulation/body. These findings are relevant because they open the debate about the possibility of incrementing ethics self-regulation within political parties through ethics-targeted public funding and raise the need for further research on the effects of such measures on the parties’ ethical climate and public legitimation.
Political group formation in the European parliament: Negotiating democracy and gender
Party Politics, Volume 29, Issue 5, Page 817-828, September 2023.
Political group formation in the European Parliament (EP) after European elections is a core feature of supranational party politics. The research objective of this article is to scrutinise democratic practices and the role of values, more specifically gender equality, in this political group formation. Complementing extant literature, this article engages with gendered political group formation as a dynamic process consisting of three intertwined layers, which are assessed by analysing formal and informal institutions around democracy and gender. The article draws on a unique data set of 130 interviews with MEPs, political group and parliamentary staff conducted in 2018–2020. The key findings of the article show that gender plays a role in each layer of political group formation, yet there are clear differences between political groups. By deciphering the reasons behind these differences, the article enhances the understanding of the political dynamics and struggles within the political groups.
Political group formation in the European Parliament (EP) after European elections is a core feature of supranational party politics. The research objective of this article is to scrutinise democratic practices and the role of values, more specifically gender equality, in this political group formation. Complementing extant literature, this article engages with gendered political group formation as a dynamic process consisting of three intertwined layers, which are assessed by analysing formal and informal institutions around democracy and gender. The article draws on a unique data set of 130 interviews with MEPs, political group and parliamentary staff conducted in 2018–2020. The key findings of the article show that gender plays a role in each layer of political group formation, yet there are clear differences between political groups. By deciphering the reasons behind these differences, the article enhances the understanding of the political dynamics and struggles within the political groups.
How non-radical right parties strategically use nativist language: Evidence from an automated content analysis of Austrian, German, and Swiss election manifestos
Party Politics, Volume 29, Issue 5, Page 865-877, September 2023.
Radical right parties and their nativist ideas have gained considerable momentum, compelling non-radical parties to “engage” with this nativist “Zeitgeist.” Yet, aside from general trends such as tougher stances on migration, we know little about the strategic choices of parties when balancing their commitment to core policy goals and the need to be “timely,” that is, to respond to changing environments. Theoretically, parties may either adapt their ideological “core” to signal commitment or merely attribute nativist ideas to secondary issue areas to signal general responsiveness. Drawing on Austrian, German, and Swiss manifestos for over two decades and establishing a novel dictionary to assess parties’ use of nativism, we find that while previous studies showing right-wing parties compete with RRPs using nativism in the same domains are correct, the strategic choices around this competition are more complex. How much commitment to nativist ideas parties show depends on whether radical right parties use the same domains to construct their nativist claims. For research on party competition, this means that more attention should be paid to how rather than if parties “engage” with their rivals.
Radical right parties and their nativist ideas have gained considerable momentum, compelling non-radical parties to “engage” with this nativist “Zeitgeist.” Yet, aside from general trends such as tougher stances on migration, we know little about the strategic choices of parties when balancing their commitment to core policy goals and the need to be “timely,” that is, to respond to changing environments. Theoretically, parties may either adapt their ideological “core” to signal commitment or merely attribute nativist ideas to secondary issue areas to signal general responsiveness. Drawing on Austrian, German, and Swiss manifestos for over two decades and establishing a novel dictionary to assess parties’ use of nativism, we find that while previous studies showing right-wing parties compete with RRPs using nativism in the same domains are correct, the strategic choices around this competition are more complex. How much commitment to nativist ideas parties show depends on whether radical right parties use the same domains to construct their nativist claims. For research on party competition, this means that more attention should be paid to how rather than if parties “engage” with their rivals.
Extending the Laakso-Taagepera Index to integrate both party and ethnicity
Party Politics, Volume 29, Issue 5, Page 929-939, September 2023.
We show how to extend the Laakso-Taagepera measure of the effective number of parties so as to incorporate both party and ethnicity in a way that allows both ethnic-specific, party-specific, and composite measures that we refer to as extended L-T indices. While the aim of this article is methodological, we also illustrate our approach with U.S. two-party data from presidential elections, using two-group, three-group, and five-group categorizations of ethnicities to show how party ethnicization in that country has grown since 1952. For comparison, and to show the generality of our approach to situations with more than two parties, we present data from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federacija Bosne i Hercegovine), where we have three ethnic groups but also more than two parties.
We show how to extend the Laakso-Taagepera measure of the effective number of parties so as to incorporate both party and ethnicity in a way that allows both ethnic-specific, party-specific, and composite measures that we refer to as extended L-T indices. While the aim of this article is methodological, we also illustrate our approach with U.S. two-party data from presidential elections, using two-group, three-group, and five-group categorizations of ethnicities to show how party ethnicization in that country has grown since 1952. For comparison, and to show the generality of our approach to situations with more than two parties, we present data from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federacija Bosne i Hercegovine), where we have three ethnic groups but also more than two parties.
Why do voters vote for third parties in single member districts? A test of four strategic voting conditions
Party Politics, Volume 29, Issue 5, Page 988-993, September 2023.
Duverger’s law holds that single member district rules produce two-party systems, but third party voting remains an important feature of these institutional contexts. To explain the discrepancy between theory and empirical reality, Gary Cox specified four conditions that are necessary for the theoretical expectations to bear out. Yet, subsequent research has focused mostly on just one of these conditions, namely, that voters have correct information about the competitiveness of their preferred party in the district. The purpose of this paper is to assess the role of all four conditions. Using original survey data from the 2015 United Kingdom general election, the analysis suggests that violations of the information condition matter, but that violations of the short-term instrumental rationality condition can be a significant factor as well. Consequently, future research should pay more attention to this condition when seeking to explain third party voting.
Duverger’s law holds that single member district rules produce two-party systems, but third party voting remains an important feature of these institutional contexts. To explain the discrepancy between theory and empirical reality, Gary Cox specified four conditions that are necessary for the theoretical expectations to bear out. Yet, subsequent research has focused mostly on just one of these conditions, namely, that voters have correct information about the competitiveness of their preferred party in the district. The purpose of this paper is to assess the role of all four conditions. Using original survey data from the 2015 United Kingdom general election, the analysis suggests that violations of the information condition matter, but that violations of the short-term instrumental rationality condition can be a significant factor as well. Consequently, future research should pay more attention to this condition when seeking to explain third party voting.