Party Politics, Ahead of Print.
Europhilism has traditionally been associated with centre-left and centre-right parties, those parties that contributed to the development of the EU. However, centrist parties vary in their support of European integration. Yet, we know comparatively little about the extent to which these parties support European integration. Should they be classified as Eurosceptic, or do they continue to support European integration? A comparative analysis of national and European manifestos of centre-left and centre-right parties in Austria, Germany and the UK between 1990 and 2019 shows that pro-European attitudes can be split into three patterns: enthusiast, equivocal and critical Europhiles. These patterns are combined with Vasilopoulou’s patterns of Euroscepticism to create a continuum from support for to opposition to European integration, thereby recognising that centre-left and centre-right party attitudes can change across time. These findings have implications for research on centre-left and centre-right parties’ EU attitudes by identifying the nuances of the pro-European position.
Category Archives: Party Politics:
Women in leadership in the party: Women’s representation in intra-party leadership and party positions on gender equality in employment
Party Politics, Ahead of Print.
Labour policies have large impacts on gender equality in the workplace. While political parties play critical roles in policy making, it remains unclear if party-level women’s representation impacts labour policies. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between women’s representation in intra-party leadership and party policy positions on gender equality in employment. The analyses of 1,955 political parties in 169 countries from 1970 to 2019 find that a higher proportion of women in intra-party leadership results in the party taking stances more likely to favor gender equality in employment. Even among the parties we would expect to be the least women-friendly, a greater representation of women in intra-party leadership has positive influence. More women in leadership means stronger party support for gender equality regardless of ideological party placement. Furthermore, the findings also suggest that women party leaders have greater impacts on labour policies when a party leadership has greater decision-making power.
Labour policies have large impacts on gender equality in the workplace. While political parties play critical roles in policy making, it remains unclear if party-level women’s representation impacts labour policies. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between women’s representation in intra-party leadership and party policy positions on gender equality in employment. The analyses of 1,955 political parties in 169 countries from 1970 to 2019 find that a higher proportion of women in intra-party leadership results in the party taking stances more likely to favor gender equality in employment. Even among the parties we would expect to be the least women-friendly, a greater representation of women in intra-party leadership has positive influence. More women in leadership means stronger party support for gender equality regardless of ideological party placement. Furthermore, the findings also suggest that women party leaders have greater impacts on labour policies when a party leadership has greater decision-making power.
Ambiguity and vagueness in party competition
Party Politics, Ahead of Print.
A central theme emerging from recent research on party competition is that political actors sometimes remain deliberately opaque in their communication. This phenomenon has been investigated under labels such as position-blurring, ambiguity, issue clarity or ideological clarity. In this paper we propose a distinction between two concepts that are sometimes conflated in this literature: ambiguity and vagueness. While ambiguity means that there is substantial variance in parties' positional signals, vagueness denotes political statements that are non-committal in terms of the policy action to be taken or the outcome to be achieved. We explore the co-variation of these two dimensions and their relationship to issue ownership and government status using manifesto data produced by the Austrian National Election Study. These data are unique in that they provide detailed positional information as well as information on policy commitment (election pledges). We show that the two dimensions are uncorrelated and have opposite relationships with issue ownership (vagueness positive, ambiguity negative). We conclude that analyses of position-blurring in party competition should take different strategies of non-clarity in party communication into account.
A central theme emerging from recent research on party competition is that political actors sometimes remain deliberately opaque in their communication. This phenomenon has been investigated under labels such as position-blurring, ambiguity, issue clarity or ideological clarity. In this paper we propose a distinction between two concepts that are sometimes conflated in this literature: ambiguity and vagueness. While ambiguity means that there is substantial variance in parties' positional signals, vagueness denotes political statements that are non-committal in terms of the policy action to be taken or the outcome to be achieved. We explore the co-variation of these two dimensions and their relationship to issue ownership and government status using manifesto data produced by the Austrian National Election Study. These data are unique in that they provide detailed positional information as well as information on policy commitment (election pledges). We show that the two dimensions are uncorrelated and have opposite relationships with issue ownership (vagueness positive, ambiguity negative). We conclude that analyses of position-blurring in party competition should take different strategies of non-clarity in party communication into account.
Party theory of parliamentary debate and the endogenous nature of parliamentary institutions: Theoretical implications from Japan’s diet
Party Politics, Ahead of Print.
We add new insights to the party theory of parliamentary debate proposed in Proksch and Slapin’s The Politics of Parliamentary Debate by combining a quantitative replication analysis of floor speeches with a qualitative explanation of the endogenous transformation of two institutions mediating elections and parliamentary speech in the Japanese Diet. Although the House of Representatives in Japan used a single non-transferable vote system with particularly strong personal vote-seeking incentives, our analysis based on a new dataset shows that, contrary to the theory’s predictions, the pattern of speech activities among party leaders and backbenchers is close to that of Germany, which has a party-centered proportional representation system. Such seemingly contradictory results, however, can be consistently understood within the scope of the theory if we consider the patterns of endogenous change in the parliamentary system and party organization. These results highlight the potential for further development of the theory.
We add new insights to the party theory of parliamentary debate proposed in Proksch and Slapin’s The Politics of Parliamentary Debate by combining a quantitative replication analysis of floor speeches with a qualitative explanation of the endogenous transformation of two institutions mediating elections and parliamentary speech in the Japanese Diet. Although the House of Representatives in Japan used a single non-transferable vote system with particularly strong personal vote-seeking incentives, our analysis based on a new dataset shows that, contrary to the theory’s predictions, the pattern of speech activities among party leaders and backbenchers is close to that of Germany, which has a party-centered proportional representation system. Such seemingly contradictory results, however, can be consistently understood within the scope of the theory if we consider the patterns of endogenous change in the parliamentary system and party organization. These results highlight the potential for further development of the theory.
Do electoral candidates reflect or select campaign issues? The influence of electoral manifestos on online communication
Party Politics, Ahead of Print.
This article investigates the influence of electoral manifestos on the online communication of electoral candidates. Our study addresses electoral candidates’ conflict between party discipline and individual issue prioritisation. Building on the salience framework, we examine the thematic congruence between manifestos and online communication. Moreover, we test which issues are emphasised during the 2017 German federal election campaign. To this end, we created an original topic dictionary based on party manifestos. Applying the dictionary, we classify 143,969 tweets by 797 candidates. Our analyses demonstrate that manifestos shape the online communication of electoral candidates substantially. The findings show that electoral candidates of left–wing parties focus on core issues over time. Our results not only highlight the authority of party leadership, but also suggest that politicians do not tap the whole potential of online communication.
This article investigates the influence of electoral manifestos on the online communication of electoral candidates. Our study addresses electoral candidates’ conflict between party discipline and individual issue prioritisation. Building on the salience framework, we examine the thematic congruence between manifestos and online communication. Moreover, we test which issues are emphasised during the 2017 German federal election campaign. To this end, we created an original topic dictionary based on party manifestos. Applying the dictionary, we classify 143,969 tweets by 797 candidates. Our analyses demonstrate that manifestos shape the online communication of electoral candidates substantially. The findings show that electoral candidates of left–wing parties focus on core issues over time. Our results not only highlight the authority of party leadership, but also suggest that politicians do not tap the whole potential of online communication.
Putting partisan influence into political context: How initial policy popularity and party attachment shape the effect of party cues
Party Politics, Ahead of Print.
Parties and their actions almost always shape the preferences, attitudes, and behaviour of their voters. However, does partisan influence over public opinion apply to all policy proposals regardless of their initial popularity and to all voters regardless of their degree of partisan attachment? This question is addressed in the real-world context of Finland, where the government enacted two reforms at the same time: an initially popular reform extending the age of compulsory education, and an initially unpopular removal of the ‘retirement tube’ for older laid-off workers. An original panel survey asked respondents about their attitudes before and after the government actions, finding that while voters of government parties increasingly tended to support the enacted policies, the magnitude of opinion change depended on voters’ initial policy preferences and party attachment. Strong party attachment led to government voters increasing their support for a reform that they initially opposed. In contrast, those with weaker partisan attachments tended to alter their preferences for an initially popular reform. These findings are relevant for understanding partisan influence over public opinion in a broader political context.
Parties and their actions almost always shape the preferences, attitudes, and behaviour of their voters. However, does partisan influence over public opinion apply to all policy proposals regardless of their initial popularity and to all voters regardless of their degree of partisan attachment? This question is addressed in the real-world context of Finland, where the government enacted two reforms at the same time: an initially popular reform extending the age of compulsory education, and an initially unpopular removal of the ‘retirement tube’ for older laid-off workers. An original panel survey asked respondents about their attitudes before and after the government actions, finding that while voters of government parties increasingly tended to support the enacted policies, the magnitude of opinion change depended on voters’ initial policy preferences and party attachment. Strong party attachment led to government voters increasing their support for a reform that they initially opposed. In contrast, those with weaker partisan attachments tended to alter their preferences for an initially popular reform. These findings are relevant for understanding partisan influence over public opinion in a broader political context.
The influence of mass media on the popularity of politicians
Party Politics, Ahead of Print.
Politicians compete with each other for votes, political positions and popularity in an attempt to translate their ideological ideas into policy. Due to a lack of face-to-face interactions, voters base their vote mainly on what they see in the media. To measure the influence of media on political success during routine periods, this paper links popularity polls to media coverage of individual politicians. Using automated content analysis on longitudinal newspaper data (2003–2019), the visibility of individual politicians and the used tone was analyzed. We find that media visibility has an impact on popularity. This media effect is especially important for MPs seeing that the function of higher-ranking politicians already affects their popularity without media visibility. A significant effect is also found for tone on popularity scores. We find a negativity bias in which negative news affects the popularity of politicians, whereas positive news does not make a difference.
Politicians compete with each other for votes, political positions and popularity in an attempt to translate their ideological ideas into policy. Due to a lack of face-to-face interactions, voters base their vote mainly on what they see in the media. To measure the influence of media on political success during routine periods, this paper links popularity polls to media coverage of individual politicians. Using automated content analysis on longitudinal newspaper data (2003–2019), the visibility of individual politicians and the used tone was analyzed. We find that media visibility has an impact on popularity. This media effect is especially important for MPs seeing that the function of higher-ranking politicians already affects their popularity without media visibility. A significant effect is also found for tone on popularity scores. We find a negativity bias in which negative news affects the popularity of politicians, whereas positive news does not make a difference.
Survival of the social? Effects of intra-party cooperation on MP renomination
Party Politics, Ahead of Print.
Parties are the nucleus of modern parliaments. Therefore it is crucial to understand cooperation and competition within parties. In most parliaments, we can observe some form of cooperation, like cosponsorship.In this paper, cosponsorship is used to identify the relationships of MPs within their parliamentary party group, and to infer whether this relational position has an effect on their reselection. Are better embedded and connected MPs more likely to be reselected? Do peers matter in reselection? This question is also of theoretical interest in the light of competing principals (Carey, 2007).The empirical analysis first replicates the model of MP renomination by Baumann et al. (2017), adding a new data set from the German Bundestag, used to provide the relational independent variables of cosponsorship centrality. The key finding of the analysis is indeed: cosponsorship closeness is a significant predictor of MP reselection and can be seen as a compelling complement to the model by Baumann et al.With cooperation shown to be significant when it comes to renomination, the understanding of peer-induced competition, competing principals theory can be further developed, to aid our understanding of MP cooperation and competition, delegation, agency and collective principals in modern parties.
Parties are the nucleus of modern parliaments. Therefore it is crucial to understand cooperation and competition within parties. In most parliaments, we can observe some form of cooperation, like cosponsorship.In this paper, cosponsorship is used to identify the relationships of MPs within their parliamentary party group, and to infer whether this relational position has an effect on their reselection. Are better embedded and connected MPs more likely to be reselected? Do peers matter in reselection? This question is also of theoretical interest in the light of competing principals (Carey, 2007).The empirical analysis first replicates the model of MP renomination by Baumann et al. (2017), adding a new data set from the German Bundestag, used to provide the relational independent variables of cosponsorship centrality. The key finding of the analysis is indeed: cosponsorship closeness is a significant predictor of MP reselection and can be seen as a compelling complement to the model by Baumann et al.With cooperation shown to be significant when it comes to renomination, the understanding of peer-induced competition, competing principals theory can be further developed, to aid our understanding of MP cooperation and competition, delegation, agency and collective principals in modern parties.
Islamism, party change, and strategic conciliation: Evidence from Tunisia
Party Politics, Ahead of Print.
What happens to an Islamist party after moderating its behaviour and ideology? Existing work on Islamist parties has elaborated the varied causes of moderation. Yet, the mixed findings do not capture the full range of Islamist dynamics. This article draws on a multiyear, interview-based study of the Tunisian Islamist party Ennahda to interrogate the process of intraparty change after moderation. Islamist parties face a two-level problem with external and internal trade-offs. I argue that the intraparty characteristics that enable moderation may also contribute to undermining a party’s institutional structure and identity as it responds to an uncertain political context. These findings bring processual evidence from Islamist parties into broader explanations of party change and highlight the ongoing effects of moderation, not just its causes.
What happens to an Islamist party after moderating its behaviour and ideology? Existing work on Islamist parties has elaborated the varied causes of moderation. Yet, the mixed findings do not capture the full range of Islamist dynamics. This article draws on a multiyear, interview-based study of the Tunisian Islamist party Ennahda to interrogate the process of intraparty change after moderation. Islamist parties face a two-level problem with external and internal trade-offs. I argue that the intraparty characteristics that enable moderation may also contribute to undermining a party’s institutional structure and identity as it responds to an uncertain political context. These findings bring processual evidence from Islamist parties into broader explanations of party change and highlight the ongoing effects of moderation, not just its causes.
WhatsApp and political communication in West Africa: Accounting for differences in parties’ organization and message discipline online
Party Politics, Ahead of Print.
Social media has become central to how political parties plan, organize, and coordinate electoral campaigns in Africa, with WhatsApp increasingly the preferred medium. How, we ask, have African political parties made use of WhatsApp to organize internally during elections, and what explains the approaches they have taken? We argue that pre-existing party institutionalization is the main factor influencing how parties use WhatsApp to organize and coordinate campaign events, and reach voters. Comparing Ghana and Nigeria, we show that more institutionalized parties create formal, hierarchical online structures, with in-group policing of message content. Conversely, less institutionalized parties rely on informal, personality-based online structures with unclear hierarchies and where there is little message discipline. This matters both for the spread of mis/disinformation and inflammatory content online, and for parties’ future organizational strength. In both instances, “digital clientelism” ensures that existing patrimonial structures are replicated online, restricting the empowerment of new political actors.
Social media has become central to how political parties plan, organize, and coordinate electoral campaigns in Africa, with WhatsApp increasingly the preferred medium. How, we ask, have African political parties made use of WhatsApp to organize internally during elections, and what explains the approaches they have taken? We argue that pre-existing party institutionalization is the main factor influencing how parties use WhatsApp to organize and coordinate campaign events, and reach voters. Comparing Ghana and Nigeria, we show that more institutionalized parties create formal, hierarchical online structures, with in-group policing of message content. Conversely, less institutionalized parties rely on informal, personality-based online structures with unclear hierarchies and where there is little message discipline. This matters both for the spread of mis/disinformation and inflammatory content online, and for parties’ future organizational strength. In both instances, “digital clientelism” ensures that existing patrimonial structures are replicated online, restricting the empowerment of new political actors.