Statistical modelling to examine the impact of changes in crude oil and fertiliser prices on maize prices and future forecasts in India

Statistical modelling to examine the impact of changes in crude oil and fertiliser prices on maize prices and future forecasts in India

This study examines the impact of crude oil and fertiliser price changes on maize crop prices in India using monthly time series data from May 2007 to September 2022. The best-fitted Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion value is selected, and the Box–Ljung test is used to validate the prediction accuracy.


Abstract

This study examines the impact of crude oil and fertiliser price changes on maize crop prices in India using monthly time series data from May 2007 to September 2022. The best-fitted Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion value is selected, and the Box–Ljung test is used to validate the prediction accuracy. Empirical results suggest that maize price is driven by crude oil and fertiliser prices since it has been found that maize prices are highly positively correlated with the prices of crude oil and fertiliser. Also, a strong correlation has been found between crude oil and fertiliser prices. The investigation for forecasting the next 15 months from November 2022 also revealed that maize prices showed no volatility because of a constant trend, but crude oil prices showed a declining trend, while di-ammonium phosphate prices showed an increasing trend over the period from November 2022 to February 2023. They then declined to June 2023 but again showed an increasing trend from July 2023 to January 2024 and achieved the highest price in December 2023. Because of a constant trend, urea prices showed no volatility over the 15 months. The estimates can aid the government in formulating policies to maintain agricultural crop production and control input price changes to meet the growing population's food demands.

Phenological growth stages of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus according to the Biologische Bundesanstalt Bundessortenamt and Chemical Industry (BBCH) scale

Phenological growth stages of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus according to the Biologische Bundesanstalt Bundessortenamt and Chemical Industry (BBCH) scale

Astragalus membraneceus var. monghalicus fruit growth process


Abstract

Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus (Astragalus) is a perennial medicinal plant belonging to Leguminosae. Its main agronomic and industrial interest is the accumulation of astragaloside IV and calycosin-7-O-β-D-glucoside in roots, two components that play crucial pharmacological roles in the finished pharmaceutical products. Phenological research is a prerequisite for improving the yield quality of cultivated medicinal plants. However, there are no standardized phenological studies on Astragalus. To expand phenotyping knowledge on this medicinal plant, researchers and breeders need a universal scale to describe the development of this plant. This study aims to define the phenological growth stages of Astragalus, based on the existing Biologische Bundesanstalt, Bundessortenamt und Chemische Industrie (BBCH) scale to provide a standard scale for Astragalus, and grown under temperate conditions of production and climate, proposes a disease and pest control reference. This study was conducted in Inner Mongolia, North China. The existing BBCH scale with a three-digit code was used to define Astragalus's phenological growth codes, supplemented with pictures. Phenological observations were performed twice monthly, based on the developmental stages. The chronology and duration of each stage were also observed and described according to the accumulation of degree days during the growing season. Based on the data obtained, the influence of the average temperature and GDD on the phenophases was evaluated. The phenological description is divided into two principal growth stages: five for vegetative growth (perennating bud, leaf development, formation of branches, main stem elongation and root development), four for reproductive growth (reproductive organ development, flowering, fruit development and fruit maturation), and one for senescence according to the BBCH scale. Seventy secondary growth stages were described within the 10 principal growth stages. Under each secondary growth stage, six mesostages are also taken into account, which contains the distinct patterns of the phenological characteristics in Astragalus varieties and the process of transplanting seedlings. A practical management program for disease and pest control was also proposed by using the BBCH code and the phenological data proposed in this work. Our study presents the first BBCH scale established for Astragalus cultivated in temperate conditions and a chronology of phenological stages based on the accumulation of thermal time, through growing degree day calculation. This work provides a general tool that can be widely used by researchers, breeders, and manufacturers of medicinal materials leading to better agricultural production and scientific communication.

Elevated carbon‐dioxide effects on wheat grain quality differed under contrasting nitrogen and phosphorus fertiliser supply

Abstract

Global atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration ([CO2]) is increasing rapidly, but its interactions with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) fertiliser on wheat grain quality are not well understood. In two experiments, we investigated the effects of ambient [CO2] (aCO2; ∼410 ppm) and elevated [CO2] (eCO2; 760 ppm) on shoot macro-nutrient content, nutrient harvest index (NuHI) and grain nutrient concentration of wheat supplied low and optimum rates of N and P fertilisers. Elevated [CO2] increased biomass, grain yield and grain nutrient accumulation in Experiment 1, resulting in reduced grain N, S, Ca and Mg concentration. This was attributed to nutrient ‘dilution’ due to increased carbohydrate content in the grain. In contrast, in Experiment 2, measured variables were unaffected by eCO2, but grain N, K, Ca and Mg concentrations decreased with increasing [CO2]. This was attributed to reduced remobilisation of nutrients to the grain during reproductive development at eCO2. Fertiliser deficiency reduced straw and grain yield by 61–86% across CO2 treatments and experiments. The element HIs were unaffected by eCO2, except for MgHI. Our results point to a compensatory and symmetrical interactions between N, P and CO2 that changes in one element rapidly altering the availability of the other. Furthermore, the results highlight the need for selecting cultivars that are productive and yet maintain suitable quality characteristics under eCO2.

This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Relative contribution of season, site, scion and rootstock genotype, and susceptibility to European canker to the variability in bacterial and fungal communities in apple leaf scar tissues

Relative contribution of season, site, scion and rootstock genotype, and susceptibility to European canker to the variability in bacterial and fungal communities in apple leaf scar tissues

Composition of endophyte around the apple leaf scars was primarily affected by season and planting location. There was a significant reduction in the community size in the spring, particularly for fungi, and species turnover between autumn and spring. Scion and rootstock genotypes had limited effects on the endophyte community. A group of resistant cultivars differed from a group of susceptible ones in the relative abundance of many bacterial and fungal OTUs, including OTUs from Sphingomonas, Methylobacterium, Vishniacozyma and Rhodotorula babjevae.


Abstract

Neonectria ditissima infects apple trees through wounds, causing European canker. In the UK, the most important entry site for N. ditissima is leaf scar. Specific apple endophytes may contribute to cultivar resistance/tolerance to the pathogen. We assessed the relative effect of location, sampling time (season), and rootstock/scion genotype on bacterial and fungal endophyte communities in the apple leaf scar tissues of current-season extension shoots and identified Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) with differential abundance between canker resistant and susceptible scions, and between rootstocks. Leaf scar tissues were sampled from two orchards at three times (10/2018, 06/2019 and 10/2019) for eight scion cultivars, each grafted onto two rootstocks, for profiling 16S and ITS rRNA regions. Endophyte composition was primarily affected by season (autumn vs. spring) and location (sites and blocks within site). There was a significant reduction in the community size in the spring, particularly for fungi, and species turnover between autumn and spring. This seasonal dynamics suggest that to protect leaf scars from N. ditissima infection in the autumn specific endophytes suppressing canker may have to be augmented annually around the leaf-fall time. Scion and rootstock genotypes had limited effects on the endophyte community. A group of resistant cultivars differed from a group of susceptible ones in the relative abundance of many bacterial and fungal OTUs, most of which had low reads numbers. Nevertheless, several OTUs with high reads numbers differed in their relative abundance between resistant and susceptible scions, including OTUs from Sphingomonas, Methylobacterium, Vishniacozyma and Rhodotorula babjevae, and warrant further investigation for their potential role in host resistance/tolerance against N. ditissima.

Benzoic acid promotes Fusarium wilt incidence by enhancing susceptibility and reducing photosynthesis of faba bean

Benzoic acid promotes Fusarium wilt incidence by enhancing susceptibility and reducing photosynthesis of faba bean

The cell wall degrading enzymes showed a significant negative correlation with photosynthesis, while they positively related with disease incidence. Photosynthesis also presented a significant negative correlation with disease incidence rate. The incidence and disease index were positively correlated. Biomass positively correlated with leaf length and width, and photosynthesis positively correlated with transpiration rate and stomatal conductance.


Abstract

Continuous faba bean (Vicia faba L.) cropping causes adverse effects, including increased secretion of autotoxic substances (benzoic acid) and incidence of diseases (Fusarium wilt). Fusarium commune infects faba bean seedlings and is treated with different benzoic acid concentrations. Therefore, this investigation analysed the association of benzoic acid with faba bean wilt incidence and the mechanisms involved. Furthermore, seedling growth, tissue structure, Fusarium wilt incidence, cell wall degrading enzymes (CWDEs) activity, lignin levels, and leaf photosynthetic parameters were assessed. The results indicated that fungal infection markedly reduced biomass and photosynthesis in the faba bean. Microscopic analysis showed slightly thickened stems' xylem vessels. Benzoic acid treatment with F. commune infection substantially increased F. commune-mediated CWDEs activity in the faba bean stem and lignin level but reduced photosynthesis and biomass, elevating Fusarium wilt incidence. Furthermore, broken tissues, xylem thickening, and stem cavities were observed. The investigation indicated that benzoic acid treatment and F. commune infection-induced stem lignin might be a resistance response; however, increased pathogenicity and reduced photosynthesis enhanced susceptibility and aggravated Fusarium wilt.

A semiochemical view of the ecology of the seed beetle Acanthoscelides obtectus Say (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae, Bruchinae)

A semiochemical view of the ecology of the seed beetle Acanthoscelides obtectus Say (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae, Bruchinae)

The dried bean beetle, Acanthoscelides obtectus, is an economically important pest of stored legumes worldwide. We review the semiochemistry of the mate- and host-finding behaviour of A. obtectus and provide new information about the effect of seed chemistry on the sensory and behavioural ecology of host acceptance and larval development. Knowledge of the biology and chemistry of both the host plant and its herbivore will underpin the development of chemical ecology-based approaches to form an essential part of the toolkit of integrated bruchid management.


Abstract

The dried bean beetle, Acanthoscelides obtectus, is an economically important pest of stored legumes worldwide. Tracking the human-aided dispersion of its primary hosts, the Phaseolus vulgaris beans, it is now widespread in most bean-growing areas of the tropics and subtropics. In temperate regions where it can only occasionally overwinter in the field, A. obtectus proliferates in granaries, having multiple generations a year. Despite its negative impact on food production, no sensitive detection or monitoring tools exist, and the reduction of local populations still relies primarily on inorganic insecticides as fumigating agents. However, in the quest to produce more nutritious food more sustainably and healthily, the development of environmentally benign crop protection methods is vital against A. obtectus. For this, knowledge of the biology and chemistry of both the host plant and its herbivore will underpin the development of, among others, chemical ecology-based approaches to form an essential part of the toolkit of integrated bruchid management. We review the semiochemistry of the mate- and host-finding behaviour of A. obtectus and provide new information about the effect of seed chemistry on the sensory and behavioural ecology of host acceptance and larval development.

Exogenous growth regulators amplify the morpho‐physiology, root architecture and dry‐matter accumulation in seed potato

Exogenous growth regulators amplify the morpho-physiology, root architecture and dry-matter accumulation in seed potato

Gibberellic acid (200 ppm) applied via foliar at 45 and 60 days after sowing on seed potato plants resulted in significantly higher yields of seed-sized tubers measuring <4.5 cm and also exhibited superior root architecture parameters and accumulation of dry matter, outperforming all other growth regulation treatments and control.


Abstract

Enhancing the productivity of seed potato production systems by improving the size of the tubers is a primary concern. Punjab, a state located in the northwest region of India, meets 60% of the country's seed requirements. In order to optimize the morpho-physiological aspects, root structure, and overall yield of seed-sized tubers, research trials were carried out at Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana over two consecutive years. The trial consisted of 11 different treatments and was conducted using a randomized complete block design with three replications. The application of Gibberellic acid at a concentration of 200 ppm, at 45 and 60 days after sowing (DAS), resulted in significantly higher yields of seed-sized tubers measuring <4.5 cm. This treatment also exhibited superior root architecture parameters and accumulation of dry matter, outperforming all other growth regulation treatments. Compared to the untreated control group, the Gibberellic acid application led to a remarkable increase of 45.9% and 39.8% in seed-sized tuber yields. Furthermore, it significantly boosted the protein, starch, antioxidant (total phenols), sugar (total and reducing), and mineral content (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) in the tubers, surpassing the effects of all other growth regulation treatments. These results suggested that the exogenous use of gibberellic acid (200 ppm) at 45 and 60 DAS substantially improved the physiology, root architecture, and yield of seed-sized tubers.

Exploiting volatile organic compounds in crop protection: A systematic review of 1‐octen‐3‐ol and 3‐octanone

Exploiting volatile organic compounds in crop protection: A systematic review of 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone

Exploitation of the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone show potential for use in future crop protection. Key interactions between naturally occurring biosynthesised 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone and a range of invertebrate targets has been identified. Development of 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone for use in crop protection should focus on the exploitation of synthesised nature identical variants of these compounds for use as a biopesticide.


Abstract

The 21st century has brought new challenges to the agri-food industry due to population growth, global warming, and greater public awareness of environmental issues. Ensuring global food security for future generations is crucial. However, pests, weeds, and diseases still significantly contribute to crop losses, and the availability of effective conventional synthetic pesticides is decreasing. To address this, new and diverse pest management tools are needed. One pest management tool showing potential for invertebrate pest management is the exploitation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)—in particular, the compounds 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone. This review aims to explore the extent to which 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone show potential in the future management of invertebrate crop and animal pests. A significant increase in the rate of publication of literature on the use of 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone in crop protection since 2018 is identified by this review, therefore, showing the potential importance of these compounds for use in future pest management. This review also identifies key interactions between naturally occurring biosynthesised 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone, and a range of invertebrate targets. Many of these interactions with key crop pests are sourced from the taxonomic families Lamiaceae, Fabaceae, and Trichomaceae. However, analysis of the practical application of these sources in an integrated pest management programme identifies clear limitations with the use of naturally occurring biosynthesised 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone. Rather, future focus should be placed on the development and exploitation of synthesised nature identical 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone for use as a biopesticide product. Overall, 1-octen-3-ol and 3-octanone show potential for exploitation in future crop protection, being abundant in source and diversity of invertebrate interactions. However, their use as a naturally occurring biosynthesised chemical is likely not practical for direct implementation in crop protection. Rather, focus should be placed on the development and exploitation of synthesised nature identical variants of these compounds for use as a biopesticide.

Wood distillate (pyroligneous acid) boosts nutritional traits of potato tubers

Wood distillate (pyroligneous acid) boosts nutritional traits of potato tubers

Potato is the fourth most widely consumed staple food in the world. This study investigated the effectiveness of 0.2% wood distillate (WD), a biostimulant derived from the pyrolysis of waste plant biomass, in boosting the nutritional quality of potato tubers.


Abstract

Potato is the fourth most widely consumed staple food in the world. This study investigated the effectiveness of 0.2% wood distillate (WD), a biostimulant derived from the pyrolysis of waste plant biomass, in boosting the nutritional quality of potato tubers. The results showed that application of WD significantly increased the content of soluble sugars (sucrose +56.3%; glucose +44.9%; fructose +62.2%), starch (+35.1%) and total carbohydrates (+16.8%). Antioxidants (total antioxidant power, polyphenols, flavonoids) and most mineral elements (K, Mg, Ca, Na, Fe, Zn) were not affected. A lower content of Cu (−17.8%) and P (−24.5%) was found in WD-treated potato.

Identification of multiple symptoms of huanglongbing by electronic nose based on the variability of volatile organic compounds

Identification of multiple symptoms of huanglongbing by electronic nose based on the variability of volatile organic compounds

Identification of multiple symptoms of huanglongbing (HLB) by electronic nose (E-nose) based on the variability of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). (1) Headspace solid-phase microextraction gas chromatography–mass spectrometry-based analysis demonstrates the potential of E-nose for HLB detection. (2) The best feature extraction method and pattern recognition method were confirmed. (3) Optimal VOCs pick-up conditions are temp. 40°C, time 20 min, W 0.2 g, and vol 200 mL. (4) HLB can be detected based on E-nose (98.75% for HLB+, 97.50% for Zn deficiency and HLB+).


Abstract

Huanglongbing (HLB) is highly contagious and cannot be cured, resulting in a decrease in the commercial value of citrus. Timely detection and removal of diseased trees is an effective way to reduce losses. Complex symptoms of HLB, such as nutrient deficiencies often accompany HLB; as a result effective and accurate identification of HLB remains a challenge. In this study, 175 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were detected in three categories (healthy, HLB, and Zn-deficiency) of samples using headspace solid-phase microextraction gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (HS-SPME-GC/MS), highlighting the variability of VOCs present in different categories of samples. In order to simplify the testing steps and reduce the cost in practical agricultural production, a method based on electronic nose technology to collect VOCs from citrus leaves for HLB detection was proposed. Among them, limiting value features and linear discriminant analysis were identified as the best combination of feature extraction and pattern recognition methods. Multiple sets of comparison experiments were set up and the collection conditions of VOCs were optimized. The results showed that the best classification performance was achieved for a 0.2 g sample at a collection time of 20 min when the collection temperature was 40°C and the headspace volume was 200 mL. Four types of samples (healthy, HLB-positive, Zn-deficiency, Zn-deficiency and HLB-positive) were used for model reliability validation, with an accuracy of 97.79% for HLB samples for multiple symptoms (including HLB-positive and Zn-deficiency and HLB-positive) identification. In addition, the accuracy of samples with a combined effect of Zn-deficiency and HLB was 96.43%. The results show that the E-nose-based HLB detection method is conducive to suppressing the spread of HLB, which can ensure the quality of citrus products and reduce the economic loss to horticulturists, and has good practical value.