Nucleos(t)ide analog-treated chronic hepatitis B patients with a higher Fibrosis-4 index (≥1.58) at year 1 after the therapy showed a higher incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma. A fibrosis and alanine aminotransferase-1 (FAL-1) score that can be calculated simply with the Fibrosis-4 index and alanine aminotransferase at year 1 of nucleos(t)ide analog might be useful to predict hepatocellular carcinoma development in the clinical settings.
Abstract
Aim
Nucleos(t)ide analogs do not completely prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B virus infection. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of a non-invasive liver fibrosis marker, the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, for predicting HCC development.
Methods
Among a total of 882 chronically hepatitis B virus infection-infected patients who were treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs, 472 patients without HCC history whose FIB-4 at baseline and 1 year of treatment was obtained were evaluated for the incidence of HCC.
Results
The median FIB-4 was 2.00 at baseline and was significantly reduced to 1.58 at 1 year (P < 0.001), but the reduction was small at 2 years or later. When a receiver operating characteristic analysis of FIB-4 was performed to predict HCC within 5 years, the area under the curve of FIB-4 at 1 year was higher than that at baseline (0.676 vs. 0.599). The HCC incidence was significantly higher in patients with FIB-4 ≥1.58 than in those with FIB-4 <1.58 (14.8% vs. 3.6% at 10 years, P < 0.001). Additionally, an abnormal alanine aminotransferase (≥31 U/L) at 1 year was an independent risk for HCC. When a fibrosis and alanine aminotransferase-1 (FAL-1) score was evaluated as an applicable number of FIB-4 ≥1.58, and alanine aminotransferase ≥31 as 0, 1, and 2, the HCC risk in patients with score 2 was significantly higher than in those with score 1 or score 0 (24.1% vs. 9.8% vs. 0.7% at 10 years, P < 0.001).
Conclusions
FIB-4 ≥1.58 and alanine aminotransferase ≥31 at 1 year of nucleos(t)ide analog was an independent risk factor for HCC development, and a score using these factors stratified the risk of HCC.