Statistical modelling to examine the impact of changes in crude oil and fertiliser prices on maize prices and future forecasts in India

Statistical modelling to examine the impact of changes in crude oil and fertiliser prices on maize prices and future forecasts in India

This study examines the impact of crude oil and fertiliser price changes on maize crop prices in India using monthly time series data from May 2007 to September 2022. The best-fitted Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion value is selected, and the Box–Ljung test is used to validate the prediction accuracy.


Abstract

This study examines the impact of crude oil and fertiliser price changes on maize crop prices in India using monthly time series data from May 2007 to September 2022. The best-fitted Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion value is selected, and the Box–Ljung test is used to validate the prediction accuracy. Empirical results suggest that maize price is driven by crude oil and fertiliser prices since it has been found that maize prices are highly positively correlated with the prices of crude oil and fertiliser. Also, a strong correlation has been found between crude oil and fertiliser prices. The investigation for forecasting the next 15 months from November 2022 also revealed that maize prices showed no volatility because of a constant trend, but crude oil prices showed a declining trend, while di-ammonium phosphate prices showed an increasing trend over the period from November 2022 to February 2023. They then declined to June 2023 but again showed an increasing trend from July 2023 to January 2024 and achieved the highest price in December 2023. Because of a constant trend, urea prices showed no volatility over the 15 months. The estimates can aid the government in formulating policies to maintain agricultural crop production and control input price changes to meet the growing population's food demands.

Composite indexes of anthropometric failure in children under 5 years of age in Argentina: Comparative analysis among regions: 2019–2020

Abstract

Objectives

Composite Index of Anthropometric Failure (CIAF) and Extended CIAF (ECIAF) allow for the identification of simultaneous presence of two or more types of malnutrition. The objective of this study was to analyze anthropometric failure in Argentinean children under 5 years old, taking into consideration regional and socioeconomic perspectives.

Materials and Methods

Data from the National Survey of Children and Adolescents MICS 2019–2020 were used, which included 5473 children under 5 years old of both sexes residing in the six regions of Argentina. CIAF and ECIAF excludes children not in anthropometric failure (group A) and was calculated from a percentage of children included in malnutrition categories B: wasting only; C: wasting and underweight; D: wasting, stunting, and underweight; E: stunting and underweight; F: stunting only; Y: underweight only; G: only weight excess; and H: stunting and weight excess. The data were analyzed according to region and wealth quintile.

Results

In children aged 0–2.99 years, CIAF was 12.5% and ECIAF was 27.7%, with boys being more affected. In children aged 3–4.99 years, the rates were 9.7% and 22.3%, respectively, with girls showing a higher prevalence. The highest ECIAF was recorded in the Patagonia region (31.3%), while the highest ECIAF was observed in the poorest quintile.

Discussion

The presence of double burden of malnutrition has been observed across all regions and household income levels. Additionally, overweight has shown a higher intensity in economically prosperous regions and households, while stunting has been more prevalent in economically disadvantaged areas.

Genetic parameters for health traits and their association with fertility and milk production in Chinese Holsteins

Abstract

Herd health is one of the key problems influencing the efficiency of the dairy industry. Genetic selection, with a focus on animal health, is important for herd improvement. This study aimed to estimate genetic parameters for health traits and their correlations with fertility and milk production traits in dairy cattle. Based on records from 58,549 lactating cows calved between 2015 and 2021, a total of 24 health traits (six composite health traits and 18 independent health traits), four fertility traits and five milk production traits were analysed. First, linear and threshold animal models were used to estimate the variance components and heritabilities of the health traits. Second, a bivariate linear animal model was used to estimate genetic correlations among all 24 health traits. Finally, a bivariate linear animal model based on records from the first lactation was used to estimate the correlations between health traits and fertility or milk production traits. The results showed that all health traits had low heritabilities, ranging from 0.002 (0.001) to 0.048 (0.004) in the linear model and from <0.001 (0.021) to 0.226 (0.035) in the threshold model. Genetic correlations between health traits across categories were generally low, whereas the relatively high genetic correlations were found between health traits within the same category. In this study, only a few significant and moderate genetic correlations were observed between health traits and fertility or milk production traits. Clinical mastitis showed relatively moderate correlations with fertility traits, ranging from 0.277 (0.113) (interval from first to last insemination) to 0.401 (0.104) (calving interval). Moreover, there were moderate genetic correlations between hoof health and milk production traits. The results from the current study will support balanced dairy breeding to genetically improve disease resistance in dairy cows.

Growth performance, nutrient digestion, rumen fermentation and blood biochemistry in response to partially replacing cottonseed cake with sesame meal in a lamb feedlot diet

Abstract

Recently, it is necessary to formulate high-quality, balanced and low-cost rations for ruminants from nontraditional sources. The present study conducted to investigate the impact of partially replacing corticated cottonseed (CS) cake with sesame meal (SM) in a lamb feedlot diet on growth performance, nutrient digestion, rumen fermentation and blood biochemistry. Fifteen growing lambs with an initial body weight of 27.4 ± 1.2 kg (6–7 months old) were randomly assigned into three equal groups (n = 5). Lambs in control group (CS) fed a basal diet, while 8% and 16% SM were used to replace an equal portion of corticated CS cake in the second (8SM) and third (16SM) groups respectively. Results showed that most parameters of growth performance and nutrient digestibility were significantly improved (p < 0.05) with the partial replacement of SM (8SM and/or 16SM). Regarding ruminal parameters, ruminal pH and total volatile fatty acids concentration increased (p < 0.05), while ammonia level and total protozoa count decreased with the partial replacement of SM. Moreover, blood parameters showed variant responses to SM partial replacement. Total protein increased, and glucose decreased significantly with 16SM, while cholesterol showed a significant decreasing with both SM replacement levels. SM may substitute CS cake in lamb diet without detrimental effects on performance, digestibility and ruminal fermentation.

Men’s household water fetching in India: Gender inequity is associated with greater responsibility and related risks

Abstract

Introduction

Household water fetching elevates physical and emotional harms, and these are generally assumed to accrue to women due to gendered labor assignments. But even in cases like India where fetching remains a highly feminized task, there are households where the primary responsibility is assumed by men.

Methods

We test the proposition that men's responsibility for water fetching is predicted by greater gender equity, reflected in measures of wives' empowerment. We used an extremely large, nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey dataset from India (2019–2020), narrowed to only households in which spouses co-reside with off-plot water sources (N = 10 616), and applying a multinomial regression approach.

Results

In >20% of households, men are the primary fetchers. They are more likely to have primary responsibility when water is more distant, privately purchased, or transported by vehicle. Contrary to predictions, men assume greater responsibility for household water fetching as their wives' empowerment measures decrease and when they want to control their movement.

Conclusion

Married men in India sometimes assume responsibility for water fetching, but this is not explained by greater household gender equity. The findings also suggest that when men are responsible for fetching they have heightened risk of some forms of physical trauma but less relative psychological harm. Detailing why men fetch water matters for identifying and mitigating the physical and emotion harms of bearing responsibility for water labor, with implications for how gender should be conceptualized in water interventions intending to improve health and well-being.

Organic selenium and vitamin E for gilts and sows bred in equatorial climate

Abstract

The aim of this study was to evaluate the dietary supplementation of organic selenium (Se) and vitamin E for sows from 1st and 2nd parity order, without adiabatic cooling on physiological parameters, reproductive performance, milk composition, litter performance and blood concentrations of antioxidant enzymes. A total of 96 sows were allotted in a 4 × 2 completely factorial design, with 4 experimental groups and 2 parity orders (1st and 2nd). The experimental groups consisted of: ACCon—sows receiving adiabatic cooling and no dietary supplementation of organic Se and vitamin E; WACCon—sows without adiabatic cooling and no dietary supplementation of organic Se and vitamin E; WACSe—sows without adiabatic cooling with dietary supplementation of 0.3 mg/kg organic Se; WACSeE—sows without adiabatic cooling with dietary supplementation of 0.3 mg/kg organic Se and 90 UI of vitamin E. ACCon Sows had lower respiratory rate, rectal temperature and body surface temperature when compared to the others sows (p < 0.05). Sows without evaporative cooling had lower daily milk production and weaned litters with lower weight and average daily gain when compared to the other groups (p < 0.05). ACCon sows presented higher weaned piglets to WACSeE sows. WACSeE Sows had higher concentrations of GSH-Px when compared to other experimental groups and higher levels of SOD than sows from ACCon and WACSe. Piglets of sows from WACSeE group presented higher levels of GSH-Px and SOD when compared to the other experimental groups. ACCon sows have higher milk yield and higher litter weight than others groups. Under equatorial climate conditions, dietary supplementation of organic Se and vitamin E from first and second parity order sows does not respond efficiently on thermoregulatory physiology and performance compared to adiabatic cooling, but modulates the enzymatic antioxidant balance of sows and piglets.

Secular trends in the anthropometric characteristics of children in a rural community in Yucatan, Mexico

Abstract

Objective

To analyze changes in height, weight, and body mass index (BMI = kg/m2) from 1986 to 2022 in 3–11 year old children from Dzeal, a rural Maya community in Yucatan, Mexico.

Materials and Methods

From October-2022 to February-2023 (third-wave survey), we obtained anthropometric measurements of children (n = 80) and family socioeconomic data and compared them with data obtained in 1986 (n = 38) and 2000 (n = 76). Comparisons of anthropometric parameters by sex between years of measurement were performed graphically and through one-way ANOVA, splitting children into two age groups: 3–7 and 8–11. Bonferroni adjustments for multiple comparisons were used when ANOVAs were statistically significant (p < .05).

Results

In girls, significant increases in height and weight between surveys were found in 3–7 and 8–11 age groups; in boys, significant increases were only found in the 8–11 age group. Regarding BMI, there were increases in 2022 compared with 1986/2000 in both sexes from 8 years onwards. Differences indicate increases of 3.9 and 4.4 cm per decade in girls aged 3–7 and 8–11, respectively, and increases in weight of 1.1 and 3.3 kg per decade, respectively. Increases in boys 8–11 years were 2.3 cm and 2.4 kg per decade.

Conclusion

Significant increases in growth parameters were observed in specific-age children in the community studied in the context of changes in livelihoods and improvements in household material conditions.

Healthy fitness zone prevalence and age‐specific fitness profile of young people in seven European countries in 2022: The EUFITMOS project

Abstract

Background

Physical fitness is a health marker in youth and is associated with current and future health.

Objective

Present the healthy fitness zone (HFZ) prevalence and age-specific fitness profile of young people from seven European countries.

Methods

This study used data from the European Fitness Monitoring System project. The sample comprised 4965 (51.4% boys) youths aged 9 to 18 years. Fitness data were collected by physical education teachers using field-based tests. Raw data from the fitness tests were used to calculate the prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of participants in the HFZ.

Results

The overall prevalence of boys and girls in the HFZ for all tests was 16.6% (95% CI = 14.7, 18.1) and 14.9% (95% CI = 13.2, 16.6), respectively. Boys have a mainly positive HFZ profiles, except for the 9-year-olds in the sit and reach (z-score difference = −1.20) and the 20 m run for boys 13–18-year-olds (z-score difference range: −0.09 to −0.01). Girls have worse HFZ profiles than boys, being out of the HFZ in several tests. Furthermore, a decreasing trend in z-score difference from the HFZ with age was observed in VO2 peak for boys and girls and sit and reach for girls. Notwithstanding, several country-related, sex and age differences were observed.

Conclusions

Boys presented mostly healthy age-specific fitness profiles in several fitness tests and ages. These differences should be considered when promoting youth's health through physical activity and fitness, as different fitness levels may require different approaches to implementing health-enhancing physical activity policies.

Phenological growth stages of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus according to the Biologische Bundesanstalt Bundessortenamt and Chemical Industry (BBCH) scale

Phenological growth stages of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus according to the Biologische Bundesanstalt Bundessortenamt and Chemical Industry (BBCH) scale

Astragalus membraneceus var. monghalicus fruit growth process


Abstract

Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus (Astragalus) is a perennial medicinal plant belonging to Leguminosae. Its main agronomic and industrial interest is the accumulation of astragaloside IV and calycosin-7-O-β-D-glucoside in roots, two components that play crucial pharmacological roles in the finished pharmaceutical products. Phenological research is a prerequisite for improving the yield quality of cultivated medicinal plants. However, there are no standardized phenological studies on Astragalus. To expand phenotyping knowledge on this medicinal plant, researchers and breeders need a universal scale to describe the development of this plant. This study aims to define the phenological growth stages of Astragalus, based on the existing Biologische Bundesanstalt, Bundessortenamt und Chemische Industrie (BBCH) scale to provide a standard scale for Astragalus, and grown under temperate conditions of production and climate, proposes a disease and pest control reference. This study was conducted in Inner Mongolia, North China. The existing BBCH scale with a three-digit code was used to define Astragalus's phenological growth codes, supplemented with pictures. Phenological observations were performed twice monthly, based on the developmental stages. The chronology and duration of each stage were also observed and described according to the accumulation of degree days during the growing season. Based on the data obtained, the influence of the average temperature and GDD on the phenophases was evaluated. The phenological description is divided into two principal growth stages: five for vegetative growth (perennating bud, leaf development, formation of branches, main stem elongation and root development), four for reproductive growth (reproductive organ development, flowering, fruit development and fruit maturation), and one for senescence according to the BBCH scale. Seventy secondary growth stages were described within the 10 principal growth stages. Under each secondary growth stage, six mesostages are also taken into account, which contains the distinct patterns of the phenological characteristics in Astragalus varieties and the process of transplanting seedlings. A practical management program for disease and pest control was also proposed by using the BBCH code and the phenological data proposed in this work. Our study presents the first BBCH scale established for Astragalus cultivated in temperate conditions and a chronology of phenological stages based on the accumulation of thermal time, through growing degree day calculation. This work provides a general tool that can be widely used by researchers, breeders, and manufacturers of medicinal materials leading to better agricultural production and scientific communication.

Prognostic value of virtual portal pressure gradient response in compensated cirrhotic patients treated with carvedilol

Prognostic value of virtual portal pressure gradient response in compensated cirrhotic patients treated with carvedilol

This single-center cohort study has demonstrated the significance of virtual portal pressure gradient (vPPG) response in disease prognosis of cirrhotic patients who require carvedilol to prevent first VH. The computation of vPPG includes the reconstruction of 3D portal vein and application of fluid dynamics analysis. Monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 makes a contribution to vPPG-reducing effects by carvedilol in cirrhotic patients.


Abstract

Aim

This study aimed to assess the prognostic significance of virtual portal pressure gradient (vPPG) response to carvedilol in patients with compensated cirrhosis (CC).

Methods

Compensated cirrhosis patients with high-risk varices were prospectively enrolled to receive carvedilol for prevention of first variceal hemorrhage (VH) and followed up for 1 year. The vPPG response was defined as a reduction of vPPG >10% from baseline after 1-month therapy. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors for vPPG response and first decompensation, respectively. Competitive risk models were constructed to predict disease progression, and validated using the C-index, Kaplan–Meier analysis, competitive risk analysis, and calibration curves.

Results

A total of 129 patients completed this study, of whom 56 (43.4%) achieved vPPG response and were referred as vPPG responders. Baseline vPPG, red color sign, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, serum monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and laminin levels significantly correlated with vPPG response, which itself was further documented as an independent predictor of VH, ascites, and overall decompensation events in CC. Moreover, the red color sign or Child–Turcotte–Pugh score effectively predicted VH, while ascites correlated well with portal flow velocity or MCP-1. The predictive models for VH and ascites showed a good discrimination with C-index values of 0.747 and 0.689 respectively, and the high consistency on calibration curves.

Conclusion

The vPPG response could be used as a noninvasive tool for prediction of disease progression in patients with CC.